Dollar Firm Ahead Of The FOMC, UK Budget Looms
Since the Federal Reserve hiked rates in December, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have eased policy further. The idea that because they cut rates means that the Fed cannot raise rates is a not a particularly helpful way to think about that is happening. The market attributes practically no […]
Reactions Mixed On Latest ECB Stimulus
Global markets have been through a roller coaster over the last few months, as weakness in China, depressed oil prices and unprecedented geopolitical risks come from just about every angle. With the Eurozone economy still sagging despite major strides from its largest economy, Germany, the European Central Bank and head Mario Draghi have expanded its […]
FTSE 100: Trades Sideways Ahead Of Today’s Fed Meeting
Trading in the FTSE 100 (FXCM: UK100) has been muted since last week’s ECB rate meeting and price is trapped between the ECB rate meeting low of 6002 and the March 4 high of 6221. A break to the above mentioned range is probably needed if momentum is to pick up. On a break to the upper […]
These Are The Energy Bonds Most Likely To Default In The Next Six Months
Over the past several weeks, courtesy of the jump in oil prices from 13 years lows, the narrowly reopened window granting some companies the chance to sell equity and in some cases debt (and promptly use the proceeds to repay their secured lenders), and the various last-ditch extensions afforded to near-default oil and gas companies, […]
Do Business Cycles Die Of Old Age?
by Timothy Taylor, Conversable Economist Whenever the US economy looks shaky, one of the most common questions I hear is whether this recovery has “run its course” or “gotten old.” The downturn of the US economy during the Great Recession ended back in June 2009, so it’s now been about 80 months of an economy on an (often […]
Global Oil Equation
Costs for servicing oil projects have pulled back considerably after a nice decade of price spikes, but oil servicing costs are going to rise again, necessitating higher oil prices to justify capital allocation behavior. There is no cure for low prices like low prices when the globe utilizes around 95 million barrels of oil per […]
Busy Trading Week For The Cable With Options
Cable has had a good run over the past 2 weeks going from its most recent low at 1.38351 on 29 February to top out at 1.44361 last Friday. This week has seen the Pound stumble again as price has now fallen back down, trading below 1.4150. This week should prove to be a busy […]
Rate Hike Expectations Surge Into March Fed Meeting As Divergent Market Participation Looms
What a difference a month makes. On February 19, the S&P 500 (SPY) was taking a brief rest from a sprint off oversold conditions. The market for Fed Fund Futures had priced away any rate hikes for all of 2016. Ever since then, expectations have risen ever higher. NOW, the market expects the next rate hike […]
UK Wages Rise 2.2% – GBP/USD Attempts A Recovery
UK wages were expected to rise 2% in January from 1.9% in December. Excluding bonuses, the figure was expected to rise from 2% to 2.1%. The unemployment rate was predicted to stay unchanged at 5.1%. Jobless claims for February were predicted to drop by 9.1K after a nice fall of 14.8K in January. GBP/USD was bouncing from the […]
Oil Pops After Lower-Than-Expected Crude Build
Against expectations of a 3.2mm build, API reported a 1.5mm build after-hours yesterday which sparked a modest pop in crude prices. Cushing saw its 7th weekly build (471k) as Gasoline extended its run of draws to the 4th week. API: Crude +1.5m Cushing +471k Gasoline -1.2m 5th weely crude build, 7th weekly Cushing build, but 4th weekly […]
