International Economic Week In Review: Is The EU Stronger Than We Think?
This week confirmed the central thesis of Lael Brainard’s February 26th speech, “What Happened to the Great Divergence,” where she argued that all major central banks are now pursuing very similar policy paths due to weak global growth. Last week, the ECB amended their asset purchase program. This week the RBA and BOJ kept rates steady while […]
When A Quarter Is Two Halves
The year started off poorly, to say the least. Equity markets plunged from the get-go. The Nikkei, DAX and S&P 500 gapped lower on the first trading day of the year. Emerging markets and commodities were smashed. Many economists blamed the Federal Reserve for hiking rates in mid-December. Pundits warned that the seven-year bull market and […]
Three Things I Think I Think – Weekend Edition – 3/20/2016
Here are some things I think I am thinking about over the weekend – negative rates, lost manufacturing jobs and debt fallacies of composition. Where did my life go so wrong that I spend my weekends thinking about these things? Perhaps a post for another day…. 1 – Shorter Ben Bernanke on Negative Rates – […]
Goldman Throws Up On Global Easing Party, Warns US Economy Close To Overheating
“The dollar rally is far from over,” Goldman’s Robin Brooks said, just hours before this week’s FOMC announcement. “We expect the Fed to signal that it wants to continue normalizing policy, which means three hikes this year and four in 2017,” Brooks continued. “Overall, our sense is that the outcome will be more hawkish than market pricing.” Yes, “a […]
Ride The Dow Bull With These ETFs
After a scary start to the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average made an impressive comeback over the past one month. The index, which had fallen 11.3% in the first three weeks of 2016, has recouped all its losses and is now up more than 1% since the start of the year. Inside the Recent […]
US Equity And Economic Review: We Continue To Grind Slower
The latest LEIs and CEIs showed continued weakness. Half the leading indicators declined. The manufacturing slowdown was evident, with the ISM new orders number negative for the last 6 months and manufacturers new orders down in 3 of the last 6 months.In contrast, 3/4 of the coincident indicators rose.However, the pace of increases for both […]
Netflix Analysis – On Demand Is The Game Changer – Market Sea Change (Video)
It is pretty ironic that Netflix (NFLX) disrupted Blockbuster, causing Blockbuster to go the bankruptcy route, and ultimately On Demand is already disrupting Netflix as we speak. This is a Sea Change in the space, the worm has turned because of the market arrival of On Demand through multiple alternative platforms. This deflationary trend means […]
FMC Technologies Is Beginning To Crack
I have been short FMC Technologies (FTI) for a while now. My thesis was that the dearth in deep water E&P would eventually sink FMC these companies. They all traded up after Schlumberger’s (SLB) takeover of Cameron (CAM) in August. However, I may have gotten my big break after the company showed cracks in Q4. Subsea Technology Division […]
Weekly Economic & Political Timeline – 3/20/2016
It is almost certainly going to be a much quieter week this week than last week, with a total absence of any central bank inputs concerning any major global currencies, and with public holidays scheduled in several markets. Therefore volatility is likely to be much less. In spite of the holidays, the most important data […]
LA Port Traffic Surges 46.6 Percent, Bloomberg Says “This Means Economy Is Healthy”, Mish Says “Nonsense”
Los Angeles port traffic is up 46.6%. Traffic is up 44.7% in Long Beach, the biggest monthly gain since 2013. Matthew Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, says “This means that the economy is healthy and poised to get better, benefiting from trade that is expanding big and small businesses alike while creating more and higher-paying jobs.” […]
