EC Irrational Exuberance – Descriptive Superlatives’ Exhaustion Point Is Reached
Positioning Indicators at New Extremes We are updating our suite of sentiment data again, mainly because it is so fascinating that a historically rarely seen bullish consensus has emerged – after a rally that has taken the SPX up by slightly over 210% from its low. Admittedly, a slew of such records has occurred in the course […]
No Portfolio Changes This Week
Our core market health indicators are mostly improving this week, but at a very slow pace. None of them have improved enough to change any of our portfolio allocations. It isn’t likely that conditions will change by Friday, but I’ll make a post if they do. One positive sign is the NYSE cumulative Advance / Decline […]
October 2014 Pending Home Sales Index Declines But Continues To Show Improving Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) seasonally adjusted pending home sales index declined marginally – but remains in expansion for the second month after a year in contraction. Our analysis of pending home sales however suggests that November 2014 existing home sales will be better than October’s. Pending home sales are based on contract signings, and existing […]
Shift Happens
Back on November 10th, I did my Shifting Sands post, which predicted that oil would, as gold and silver did before it, fall to pieces. I’ve marked the point of my post on the chart below with an arrow. Well, so far, so good, in spite of the Saudis trying to prop things up. I think oil has […]
US “Secret” Deal With Saudis Backfires After Oil Minister Says US Should Cut First
Who could have seen this coming? With oil prices holding at 4-year lows, heavily pressuring around half of US shale production economics, the “secret” US deal (see here and here) with Saudi Arabia to crush Russia via oil over-supply in a slumping demand world appears to be backfiring rapidly for John Kerry and his strategy team. […]
DM Malfunctions Hurting Twitter
Correctly using Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) is turning out to be a tall order even for people who ought to be proficient at it. The giant social network’s chief financial officer, Anthony Noto, mistakenly tweeted how he was planning to buy a company in December and how he intended to go about it. The message was […]
Thanksgiving And The Economics Of Sharing
Dan here…this piece is originally published at Oxford University Press by Angry Bear Edward Lambert. Written by Edward Lambert For this American, my favorite holiday has always been Thanksgiving. Why? I have an image in my mind of Native Americans and colonists meeting and sharing food together; they share knowledge and stories. In the midst of their concerns about each […]
Is Energy In A Secular Decline?
Energy is the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 this year and has come under increasing pressure over the past few months as the price of Crude has plummeted to $75 a barrel. The underperformance this year has been significant, but the shift really started years ago, back in the middle of 2008 when […]
EC The Cost Of Sidelining Your Capital
In the waning stages of 2014, investors are starting to look closely at their returns and analyzing the pros and cons of their portfolio decisions this year. Overall the gains have been solid across the board for stocks and bonds with the exception of some errant sectors that have been misplaced. Energy stocks, precious metals, […]
Want An Explanation For Secular Stagnation? Try Demographics
The Federal Reserve can lower interest rates to zero, or even–as the European Central Bank has done–into negative territory. But it can’t make lenders lend or would-be borrowers borrow if they don’t want to. And it certainly can’t make a shopper open their wallet and spend if they’re more inclined to save. Economist John Maynard […]
