Stocks are trading at record levels. Still the bull market could easily run equities up another 25 percent—even against the backdrop of slower economic growth abroad.
The sagging fortunes of other advanced economies are mostly caused by structural problems that are unlikely to abate—in the European Union the rigidities imposed by a single currency, in Japan by a low birth rate and in both places by inflexible labor markets and business regulations.
Those compel the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low, and to the extent their charters and politicians permit, purchase long-term government bonds and private securities.
Those conditions push European and Japanese private investors to seek alternatives in foreign markets, and the preferred venues are China and the United States where the economy and corporate profits are growing. The most likely targets are U.S. multinationals and Chinese companies listed on U.S. and other foreign exchanges, because the latter adhere to higher accounting standards and their finances are more transparent than other Chinese companies.
The Bank of Japan and Pension Fund of Japan are flush with domestic securities, and are purchasing domestic and foreign stocks directly—that’s a profound development. With Japan’s population aging, Japanese leaders are increasingly financing future retirement obligations, which cannot be carried by investment opportunities in Japan alone, by investing in America!
At the same time, digital technologies are permitting U.S. and Chinese entrepreneurs to create competitive enterprises large and small—like Google and Uber—with much less capital and more quickly.
Little more than a decade ago Google was launched with only $25 million in capital. Exploiting a novel search engine with off the shelf servers and the free internet, it accomplished worldwide reach and a market capitalization of $23 billion—900 percent—in just six years.
