The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved sharply 0.9% over last month. The index growth has been noisy but remains in a growth trend.
This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance. The market expected growth of 0.2% to 0.7% (consensus 0.5%) in the LEI (versus the 0.9% reported).
ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is forecasting an minor economic decline in the next six months.
Additional comments from the economists at The Conference Board add context to the index’s behavior.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in October to 105.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in September, and no change in August.
“The LEI rose sharply in October, with all components gaining over the previous six months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Despite a negative contribution from stock prices in October, and minimal contributions from new orders for consumer goods and average workweek in manufacturing, the LEI suggests the U.S. expansion continues to be strong.”
“The upward trend in the LEI points to continued economic growth through the holiday season and into early 2015,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. “This is consistent with our outlook for relatively good, but not great, consumer demand over the near term. Going forward, there are continued concerns about slow business investment and lackluster income growth.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in September to 110.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July..
The LEI which shows the index at levels below the pre-2007 recession – as well as showing some turbulence in the indicator’s post recession climb:
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LEI as an Economic Monitoring Tool:
