Sorry Vlad!
Putin played the Game of Thrones this year in Ukraine and, like many in the TV show, he’s lost it all in his grab for power. As you can see from the RSX chart on the right, the Russian market (which Vlad had about $50Bn tied up in) is down 10% in two days and heading off another cliff today in what we, at PSW, refer to as a Homer Simpson Sell-Off.
Russia is, of course, an oil-based economy and Mr. Putin’s holdings are very much tied up in the oil and gas sector with a 4.5% stake in Gazprom, 37% of Sturgutneftegas and 75% of oil trading firm, Gunvor, which is facing massive losses as oil has collapsed from the FAKE top at $107 we called for you on June 20th all the way down to $63.72 this morning. Following our suggestion to short them there (in our Live Member Chat Room that morning) would have put you up $43,000 per contract at this point – not bad for 6 month’s “work“!
Of course, we have been in and out of oil shorts over and over and over again in the interim but always with a bearish bias until we hit our $80 prediction and, since then, we’ve gotten more cautious and even made some LONG-term bullish bets but the bottom seems to be lower than even I predicted back in June ($70) though it may just be an over-reaction to the OPEC meeting – we’ll have to see.
Meanwhile, there’s no good news on the demand front as China’s PMI kicked off the Global slump this morning with a 50.3 reading, down from 50.8 in October and the lowest since March while the private HSBC reading put them at 50 – not expanding at all. That was followed by Moody’s downgrading Japan’s (we’re short)Credit Rating and that is a REALLY BIG DEAL for a country that is 260% of their GDP in debt.
When you are 260% of your GDP in debt, a 1% rise in your borrowing costs means you need 2.6% MORE of your GDP just to service your current debt – think about it!
