4 Dividend Aristocrats Could Be In Serious Trouble


As an income investor, you’ve probably heard of the illustrious “Dividend Aristocrats.”

These 54 companies have continuously raised their dividends over the last 25 years or more.

And because dividend growth – not just yield – is critical for achieving outperformance, the Aristocrats are popular investments for income seekers.

But some of these regal companies may be hiding behind their spotless reputation.

Just a little digging reveals that several of these lauded stocks are teetering on the edge of losing their Aristocratic rank…

Indeed, just because a stock has raised its dividend for a quarter of a century doesn’t mean it’ll continue to do so forever.

Thus, it’s important to look at the financials of the 54 Aristocrats and identify which dividends may be in danger of a freeze… or even a cut.

First, let’s take a look at the dividend payout ratio. Anything above 80% should be a red flag for investors. Yet, four of the Dividend Aristocrats (excluding HCP, Inc. (HCP), which, as a real estate investment trust, is held to a different standard) are above this important threshold:

Dividends in Danger?

The chart above shows both the 2014 dividend payout ratio and the trailing 12-month payout ratio. The latter gives an idea of whether the company is moving toward a more or less sustainable dividend, as its most recent quarter is included.

Now, let’s take a closer look at these four companies to see whether their dividends are truly in danger.

  • Sysco (SYY): With a trailing 12-month payout ratio of 80.9% – just slightly above our 80% threshold – Sysco is in the least danger of losing its title of Aristocrat. Still, the financial numbers aren’t encouraging. Both revenue growth and net income have declined every year since 2010, and free cash flow has been in decline for just about three years now. In order to continue increasing its dividend, Sysco will have to make some tweaks.
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