Economists were surprised by the dismal retail sales report this morning. That’s not surprising because economists are nearly always surprised.
The Bloomberg Consensus retail sales estimate was a rise of 0.2%, but sales came in at 0.0% and the details were ugly, emphasis mine.
Consumer confidence may be strong but it still is not translating to strength for consumer spending. Retail sales were unchanged in April vs Econoday expectations for a 0.2 percent gain. Excluding autos, sales did rise but only barely at plus 0.1 and below expectations for 0.5 percent, while excluding both autos and gasoline, sales rose 0.2 percent vs expectations for a 0.4 percent gain.
The surprising part of the report isn’t the weakness in motor vehicles, which was signaled by weak unit sales and which fell 0.4 percent in the month, but weakness in some of the core readings including department stores which fell a very steep 2.2 percent and electronics & appliances which fell 0.4 percent for a 7th straight decline. Both furniture and food & beverages also show declines.
Year-on-year rates show just how weak growth in the retail sector has been. Total retail sales are up only 0.9 percent year-on-year, down from 1.7 percent in March. This is the lowest rate since late 2009. Excluding motor vehicles, year-on-year sales are unchanged, again the lowest reading since late 2009. Ex-auto ex-gas, sales are up a respectable 3.4 percent but, compared to 3.9 percent in March, are going in the wrong direction.
Estimated Retail Sales
The Census Department offers this Table of Retail Sales.
click on chart for sharper image
Note the huge patch of negative numbers this month. At least people are still eating out and drinking more.
Also note the negative numbers in the November 2014 through January 2015 column.
Economists expected the decline in gasoline sales (down 7.2%) to translate into increased sales elsewhere. It didn’t.
I am scratching my head over Bloomberg’s statement “consumer confidence may be strong …“. What the heck is Bloomberg talking about?
Does Bloomberg even read its own numbers? Here is a snip from the Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Level Report for April 2015, released on 4/28/2015.
