Retail sales were unchanged according to US Census headline data and was below expectations. We see a continued slowing of retail sales. Consider that the headline data is not inflation adjusted and prices are currently deflating making the data better than it seems (but still not excellent and still decelerating). Overall the rolling averages are yielding a declining growth trend.
Econintersect Analysis:
unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 1.4% month-over-month, and up0.7% year-over-year.
unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth decelerated0.9% month-over-month to 1.4% year-over-year.
Advance Retail Sales Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted (blue line), Unadjusted with Inflation Adjustment (red line), and 3 Month Rolling Average of Unadjusted (yellow line)
/images/z retail1.png
unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 2.1% year-over-year
this whole series was updated due to the annual revision – however the relative movements month-to-month did not seem to be greatly effected.
this is an advance report. Please see caveats below showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.
in the seasonally adjusted data – food and non-store retailers were strong.
U.S. Census Headlines:
seasonally adjusted sales unchanged month-over-month, up 0.9% year-over-year (last month was 1.3% year-over-year which makes sales slower).
the market was expecting:
| seasonally adjusted |
Consensus Range |
Consensus |
Actual |
| Retail Sales – M/M change |
-0.2 % to 0.8 % |
+0.2% |
+0.0 % |
| Retail Sales less autos – M/M change |
0.1 % to 0.7 % |
+0.5% |
+0.1 % |
| Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change |
0.3 % to 0.7 % |
+0.4% |
+0.2 % |
Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted Retail Sales (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales (red line)
Retail sales per capita seems to be in a long term downtrend (but short term trends vary depending on periods selected – see graph below).
