The market this year has been split between areas of tremendous strength and sectors of depleted optimism. Nowhere is this better illustrated than the divergence between soaring growth stocks and underwhelming value names. When you add to that the mess of commodity prices and lackluster action in bonds, the picture becomes very murky indeed.
Most diversified portfolios are likely sitting on very meager gains so far this year. Some may even be slipping in to the red as we head deep into the choppy summer months. Everyone is ready for a break one way or the other in the market, but the next big move appears quite difficult to discern. The tug of war between the bulls and bears is relentless.
In this type of environment, it’s very easy to get pessimistic or feel an urge to make significant changes in order to reap every basis point you can out of the remaining five months of the year.
Shaking things up may seem like the easy way to go. It provides immediate relief from the summer monotony and adds a sense of action or purpose to what has become a very sideways market. Nevertheless, making drastic changes to your portfolio in order to jump on high priced growth stocks late in the game or pick a bottom in gold miners may prove to do more harm than good.
It’s often difficult to stick with a proven investment system spread amongst a diversified array of asset classes when the going gets tough. Investors are quick to forget that the market can experience periods of consolidation for months or years without any definable trend. Trying to time every move in between can often be difficult and lead to an exasperating emotional roller coaster.
Let’s put things in perspective, we are 2.50% from the highs in stocks. Most broad-based bond funds are trading near the flat line for the year and commodity funds are sucking wind big time. Yet in the grand scheme of things, this hasn’t done a significant amount of technical or fundamental damage to the market.
