Just like the weather changes with the seasons, so can your profits. Certain businesses are obviously more cyclical than others. While some cycles are based on economics others are based on weather. Today’s Bear of the Day is a company that should have had a wonderful winter season but instead struggled. Low snow fall meant low profits for Compass Minerals (CMP –Snapshot Report).
Compass Minerals is the largest producer of rock, or highway deicing, salt in North America and the UK. It operates the largest highway deicing salt mines in both regions. They are also the third largest producer of general trade salt in North America and the second largest in the UK, serving major retailers, agricultural cooperatives and food producers. Compass is also the largest producer of sulfate potash in North America.
While the numbers for the current quarter look decent, it’s the current year and next year numbers that are in trouble. Over the last sixty days, we’ve seen 3 analysts drop their earnings estimates for the current year and one dropping their estimate for next year. The bearish sentiment has dropped the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year from $5.59 to $4.02 and taken down next year’s number from $6.03 to $4.83.
The drop in estimates may seem a bit confusing given the great quarterly numbers we just received. For the quarter ending in December of last year EPS came in at $1.72, well above consensus calling for $1.38. This was the biggest beat of the last several quarters. In fact, the quarter before saw EPS coming in at 80 cents which was a nickel off consensus of 85 cents.
The diversified chemical industry is in the Bottom 18% of our Zacks Industry Rank right now. Compass itself is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) with Value and Growth Style Scores of “D” and a Momentum Score coming in at “A.” Investors looking for other ideas within the same industry have a couple of choices which are Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks. Arkema (ARKAY – Snapshot Report) and Shanghai Petrochemical (SHI – Snapshot Report) are two names to check out on your own.
