The EU leaders summit on refugees begins tomorrow. A conclusive agreement will likely be elusive. There are three main obstacles. First, the effort to reinforce the external borders to allow free internal movement requires Turkey’s cooperation, but it won’t be represented.Second, that is important because Cyprus is demanding more concessions by Turkey. Third, others such as Spain,are concerned that the strategy contravenes EU and international law by abridging the right to asylum.
The way the EU is dealing with the refugee crisis may be giving the EU-skeptics in the UK additional fodder for what seems to be largely an emotional appeal. However, looking deeper into what is happening could be part of the case against Brexit.
We have argued that due to the success of the UK’s influence in the EU, a broadening strategy took place. It has grown to include more countries, and outside of Turkey itself, the broadening effort has nearly run its course.As a consequence of its success in growing the EU, the governance of the EU had to shift away from unanimity.It is simply too unwieldy. The EU has moved to more decision-making on a qualified majority basis.
Qualified majority decision-making diminishes the veto power any one country, including the UK, enjoyed.However, there are still some areas that require unanimity.The agreement with Turkey is one such area.Next month, The Netherlands will hold a referendum on the new associational agreement with Ukraine.If the people reject it, as the polls suggest is likely, and parliament agrees to adhere to the non-binding resolution, which it has, it could scupper the entire EU-Ukraine agreement (or force potentially serious modifications).
Leaving the EU, the UK would be abandoning its remaining veto, which as Cyprus and The Netherlands examples illustrate, may still be important. The expansion of qualified majority voting in the EU does not mean that the UK will always get overruled.It changes the tactics from unilateralism to build ad hoc coalitions. While the UK may be the victim of its own success in pushing for a broader union, the larger group has many potential allies for the UK.
