VIX began a rally from its Master Cycle low on March 18. An aggressive buy signal (NYSE sell signal) may be made with a rally back above mid-Cycle resistance at 15.90.
(Barrons) Lots of market-watchers are talking about the recent plunge in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX, an options-based measure of market expectations for future price swings in the S&P 500, just had its sharpest 25-day decline on record, says MKM Partners’ derivatives strategist, Jim Strugger. The VIX fell from 28 on Feb. 11 to 14 last week. The decline means that demand for short-term options protection fell fast while U.S. stocks roared higher.
Is a plunging VIX an all-clear signal for stocks? Not quite. Just as analysts struggle to find meaning in the S&P 500′s swift, double-digit rebound since early last month, so too are VIX watchers wrestling with the meaning of the drop in the market’s “fear gauge.” As noted earlier, Katie Stockton at BTIG sees the slump in the VIX as a worrisome sign that the rebound rally could be nearing an end.
SPX closes at the 4.3-year trendline.
The SPX challenged the trendline of the Orthodox Broadening Top formation, but closed at the 4.3-year trendline at 2035.00. This trendline was originally broken on January 6, in the decline to the January 20 low. Trendlines are important support areas that often attract, then repel the markets. This quarter’s stock buybacks are coming to a close as earnings season approaches.
(SeekingAlpha) The Federal Reserve often wonders why corporations don’t invest more in their businesses.
It’s certainly made an effort to spur such spending, keeping interest rates ultra-low for many years now.
And the low rates have had a dramatic effect on corporations. But not in the way the Fed anticipated. And not in a way that bodes well for the future…
Corporations have indeed gone on a borrowing binge. But they haven’t been investing that borrowed money in the future. Instead, it’s largely been spent on the financial engineering practice commonly known as stock buybacks.
NDX ends week beneath Long-term resistance.
NDX completed a 66% retracement at 4450.76 on Tuesday before settling beneath weekly Long-term resistance at 4419.42. Should it decline beneath weekly Intermediate-term support at 4346.23, NDX may be on a sell signal.
(WSJ) The stock-market rally has left the Nasdaq behind.
While the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have recovered from drops earlier this year, the Nasdaq Composite Index still is in the red. The index chipped away at its deficit with a 0.3% gain Tuesday, as the Dow industrials and S&P edged lower, but the Nasdaq remains down 3.7% in 2016.
High Yield Bond Index makes a new high
The High Yield Index also made its high on Tuesday before falling back beneath its Cycle Top resistance at 149.47. This may mark the end of an era for high yield bonds. But we won’t get any cautionary notes from the media and their analysts. See below.
(MarketRealist) On the back of the improving US economy and market sentiments and the Fed not being in a hurry to tighten the monetary policy, high-yield bond funds stand to gain. They offer an attractive investment opportunity to investors. Even positive performance in the equity markets boosted the high-yield bond market.
The fear of a recession faded because consumer spending increased at the fastest pace in eight months this January. New orders for manufactured goods increased in January following two consecutive monthly declines. Meanwhile, jobs data in February painted a solid picture of the labor market. The housing industry remained firm.
