The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged as expected. The Fed also projected two quarter point rate hikes — fewer than what had previously been envisioned. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has cited the Fed’s data dependency — usually concerning inflation and unemployment figures. On Wednesday she introduced nine words that could prompt the Fed to keep rates steady for some time:
Global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks.
I assumed Yellen would reference the global economy some time during the meeting. However, making it another key data point in deciding whether to hike rates sounds to me like a sea change.
The Global Economy Is Showing Cracks
The global economy is starting to crack. China’s February exports fell 25% Y/Y while imports were off nearly 14%; it was the worst monthly collapse in Chinese exports since 2009. The world’s second-largest economy, China also represents 10% of global exports and 8% of imports. The IMF is so concerned that it is expected to cut its forecast for 2016 global growth from the 3.4% it currently estimates.
China’s pullback was one of the catalysts that caused 2015 world trade to fall by nearly 14% Y/Y — the first contraction since 2009. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures global trade in bulk commodities, is at historic lows; some swear by the index as predictor of global recession. The IMF believes immediate action must be taken to boost demand. While Japanese and European central bankers have been willing to cut rates further, Yellen’s acknowledgement that global growth factors into the Fed’s interest rate policy could be viewed as “immediate action.”
It Could Get Worse
According to McKinsey the flow of goods, services, and finance as a percentage of GDP fell from 53% in 2009 to 39% in 2014. And it could worsen.
A slowing China has taken a toll on global trade. However, growing automation has also hurt; this implies that the decline in demand for cargo ships, and reduction in trading activity at global shipping ports could be structural:
