by Doug Short and Steven Hansen
According to the BLS, the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year inflation rate was 1.0 % – a decline from last month’s 1.4 %. The year-over-year core inflation (excludes energy and food) rate grew 0.1% to 2.3 %, and remains slightly above the target set by the Federal Reserve.
The market expected (from Bloomberg):
As a generalization – inflation accelerates as the economy heats up, while inflation rate falling could be an indicator that the economy is cooling. However, inflation does not correlate well to the economy – and cannot be used as a economic indicator.
The major influence on the CPI was energy prices.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The energy index continued to decrease and was the major cause of the seasonally adjusted decline in the all items index, more than offsetting increases in the indexes for food and for all items less food and energy. The gasoline index fell sharply, declining 13.0 percent, and the indexes for fuel oil and electricity also decreased, though the index for natural gas rose.
The food index increased 0.2 percent in February, as the food at home index rose for the first time since September. Major grocery store food group indexes were mixed. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent. Increases in the indexes for shelter, apparel, and medical care were the largest contributors to the rise, but almost all major components increased in February.
The all items index rose 1.0 percent over the last 12 months, a smaller increase than the 1.4-percent change for the 12 months ending January. The energy index fell 12.5 percent over the past year, with all of its major components declining. The food index advanced 0.9 percent, with the index for food at home declining but the food away from home index rising. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.3 percent, its largest 12-month increase since May 2012.
