A fresh opinion poll in one of Britain’s leading newspapers, the conservative Telegraph, shows a small lead for Britain leaving the European Union, with elevated enthusiasm for the Leave campaign, according to the Lynton Crosby survey. Immigration is the key sticking point.
This weighs on the pound, with GBP/USD extending the “risk off” slide below 1.42. Update: the pair is already pushing lower and challenging the next line of support at 1.4175. It is important to note that the fall is exacerbated by a stronger greenback across the board.
Here is a quote from the article:
Tuesday’s ORB poll finds that without taking into account people’s likelihood to vote, the campaigns are virtually tied, with Remain on 47 per cent and Leave on 49 per cent.
However, when likelihood to vote is taken into account, the Leave campaign would win on 52 per cent of the vote, with remain trailing on 45 per cent. It also reveals that one third of undecided voters (31 per cent) say their “biggest hesitation” in backing the Remain campaign is the “potential for uncontrolled or increased immigration” in the EU.
Indeed, the enthusiasm is also visible in the Telegraphs’s online poll embedded in the article: it shows 77% support a Brexit. This is clearly not a scientific poll but just shows the stronger conviction of the Leave campaign vs. the Remain one.
Here is how the move looks on the chart. The poll was published on the online version of the Torygraph at 7:56 GMT and there seems to be a nice correlation with the movement on the cable chart. 1.4175 works as further support, followed by 1.4125 following up. The round level of 1.40 is key support.
Resistance awaits at 1.4280 and 1.4365, and a rise now depends on US data.
Tomorrow we have the jobs report in the UK.
