This past week, much was written about expectations regarding the ECB actions. The wide consensus was that the Euro was going to tank and the metals would tank with the Euro. However, that is not exactly what we saw.

Rather, the metals reacted exactly as we had expected.They pulled back in their 4^th waves, held their respective support levels, and began an a-wave rally in their respective 5^th wave. On Friday, they pulled back in what I am counting as a b-wave in their 5^th waves, and I am looking for upside continuation in the coming week to complete their 5^th waves. 

In fact, the metals may be setting up to top by the time the Fed makes its announcements on Wednesday, and may begin their expected declines at that time.While many will blame the decline on the Fed, we will know better, especially if they complete their c-waves in their 5^th waves of their respective ending diagonals.

And, what we know of ending diagonals is that, when they complete, they reverse quite violently, and quickly return to the region from which they began. In the GLD, that would be a fast drop to the 115 region, whereas in GDX it would mean a fast drop towards the 17 region. And, assuming this is only a corrective wave ii, then it would only be the (a) wave of wave ii, or even an a-wave within a larger (a) wave within wave ii. Much depends on how long the market expects this wave ii consolidation to take, and my estimation is that it can last into May or June.

When GLD and GDX have confirmed highs in place, I will be able to identify their pullback targets much better. For, now, I have placed estimations as to where I believe we will see their wave ii’s strike.

As for silver, it is still the problem child. However, there is now a discernable smaller degree i-ii structure in place in what may be the c-wave of its 5^th wave in a leading diagonal off the lows. If that is the case, I am raising my target back to the 16.55-17 region for the completion of 5 waves off the low in silver.A break down below 15.17 will signal that we will not likely complete 5 waves off the lows, and that we will likely see a lower low in silver.