Retirement planning is hard work and requires discipline and care. Few of us can rely on luck or the proverbial leprechaun’s pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, Assessing uncertainty on an ongoing basis is as important as identifying goals. Sadly, I’m not convinced that the topic of risk management is being discussed as often as it should be with workers and retirees alike.
In the last month, I spent copious time reviewing educational materials produced by a handful of financial advisory firms. What I found confirmed my suspicion that coverage of the topic of risk does not often extend beyond an initial assessment of risk tolerance. A prospective client is asked to complete a questionnaire. The financial advisor then reviews the answers and makes a recommendation about what asset allocation mix seems right. When scenario modeling is used, an individual may be given several possible portfolios from which to choose. Ideally, as an individual’s circumstances or goals change, the questionnaire should be completed anew and modifications made accordingly.
Outside of product boilerplate language and short paragraphs about diversification and dollar cost averaging, I did not uncover much information about specific risk management techniques that an individual investor can put to work. This is lamentable. Investment risk management is not just for corporations, financial service companies and governments.
There are lots of techniques that an individual can utilize, starting with the creation of an inventory of what protection is already in place, if any, and a risk map that specifies outcomes that an investor wants to avoid at all costs. In behavioral finance, the desire to avert losses is a well-known psychological bias and should not be ignored. It is important that an individual investor and his financial advisor acknowledge the “worst case” situation as part of setting objectives.
While gauging tolerance for risk is necessary, it is seldom sufficient for several reasons. First, a financial plan may focus only on investments and therefore exclude different kinds of insurance policies that are integral to capturing which risks are already hedged and which ones are not. Second, an investor may realize a target level of return but have a portfolio that is too small to generate sufficient cash flows. Bills are paid with cash, not returns. Third, if securities or funds are selected on the basis of expected return and standard deviation only, material quantitative and qualitative risk factors are likely excluded. As a result, an investor could be assuming “excessive” risk or not enough risk.
