Stocks ended the week higher once again, extending the market’s winning streak to a fifth week, after the Federal Reserve surprised by indicating that it may make only two more quarter-point rate hikes this year, down from members’ prior median view that four such hikes were in the cards. The Fed was the headliner, but certainly was not alone, as a number of central banks announced policy decisions this week on the heels of the ECB unloading its “bazooka” of easing last week.
MACRO NEWS: The week certainly did not lack for central bank news, as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan were among a full slate of policy decisions. The Federal Reserve released its FOMC meeting statement, maintaining the Federal Funds Rate at 0.25%-0.50% in the face of “modest” economic growth, as most had expected. The Fed’s summary of economic projections showed the median of policy makers’ projections now implies two quarter-point increases this year, down from the forecast of four implied by their projections in December. At a press conference following the news, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the FOMC still expects inflation to pick up over the medium term, adding that negative rates are not actively being debated or considered. The Bank of Japan held policy unchanged, as expected, while also promising to add more stimulus if needed. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank kept their key interest rates unchanged, as expected. Also meeting expectations, the central bank of Norway cut rates by 25 basis points to an all-time low of 0.5%. Russia’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and warned that its moderately tight monetary policy may last longer than previously planned…
In the U.S., retail sales fell 0.1% in February, versus expectations for a decline of 0.2%. When autos and gasoline are removed, the core reading was up 0.3%, versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%. The Producer Price Index fell 0.2% overall, matching expectations, while the core rate was unchanged, versus expectations for an increase of 0.1%. The headline Consumer Price Index fell 0.2% in February, matching expectations. The core CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% in February, versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%. The Empire manufacturing report had a reading of +0.62, topping expectations for a reading of -10.5 and breaking a string of seven consecutive months in contractionary territory. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index was flat at 58, versus expectations for it to tick up to 59. Housing starts for February were up 5.2% to a 1.18M rate, versus expectations for an increase of 4.6%, while building permits were down 3.1% to a 1.17M rate, versus expectations for a decline of 0.2%. Industrial production fell 0.5% in February with capacity use at 76.7%. Analysts expected industrial production to fall 0.2% last month, with utilization forecast to come in at 76.8%. Initial jobless claims were 265,000 last week, versus the expected 268,000 first-time claims. The current account deficit for the fourth quarter came in at $125.3B, versus expectations for a deficit of $118B. The Philadelphia Fed Index came in at 12.4, which was much better than the -1.5 reading that was expected. The index of leading indicators rebounded a modest 0.1% to 123.2 in February, versus expectations for the index to rise 0.2% last month. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March came in at 90.0, below the expected 92.2 reading and down from last month’s 91.7 figure…