The sugar price has traded exactly as outlined in analysis titled, Sugar Technical Outlook, produced back in September 2015 and has seen price increase by just over 50%.

That analysis outlined the expectation for price to trade up to around the $16.25 level. Price just hit a high of $16.75 before reversing back down impulsively. I believe that completes the intermediate term rally.

Let’s review the technicals beginning with the weekly chart.

SUGAR WEEKLY CHART

We can see a five wave move off the low at $10.13 which I now believe to be complete.

The two horizontal lines denote previous swing highs which price has surpassed so a higher high is now in place. All that is required now is a higher low and the bull trend can really kick into gear.

The Bollinger Bands show a last gasp rally that got back up to the upper band. Price actually traded above the upper band which is a common feature found at significant tops.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan which shows the end of the fourth wave at support from the 76.4% angle while the recent high was at resistance from the 50% angle. I now expect a correction back to at least the 88.6% angle.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of this move higher and as the first correction in a new bull trend often makes a deep retracement I am looking for a move back to at least the 76.4% level at $11.69 and possibly the 88.6% level at $10.88.

Both the RSI and MACD indicator show a bearish divergence at this price high.

Now let’s update the monthly and yearly charts with the added data from the last six months.

SUGAR MONTHLY CHART

We can see the 5 point broadening top formation we have been following. This began with the point 1 high in 2010 and we now look to have the point 4 low in place as of 2015. It may take several more years before the point 5 high completes the pattern.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from point 3 high to point 4 low and previous analysis produced six months ago outlined the expectation for this first rally to end around the 23.6% level at $16.25. Price spiked up marginally above this level to a high at $16.75 so that’s looks pretty good.