There is a lot of positive news coming out of the sector that these three stocks operate in that will get any investor excited about their prospects for outperformance in 2016. One statistic is reaching a high not set since 2007 and is what will fuel the rally in these three stocks.
It seems only a few weeks ago investors were obsessed with a collapsing stock market to begin 2016 and watching an almost daily fall in crude oil prices with intense interest. Forecasts that an anemic global economy would soon put the United States into its own recession were proliferating. It is amazing how fast perceptions and sentiment can change in today’s markets.
Oil has rallied some 40% off its lows and the energy sector is one of the best performing sectors of 2016 so far. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones have clawed their way back from deep early losses to begin the New Year as well. In addition, the Federal Reserve finally bowed to reality last week and officially backed off its game plan of raising interest rates by a quarter point four times in 2016.
So, where does that leave investors and the domestic economy? It probably means the United States is in line for muddling through another year of two percent GDP growth. This has been the hallmark of what continues to be by far the weakest post-war recovery on record despite zero interest rates, massive stimulus programs, and a quintupled Federal Reserve balance sheet. Given the tepid growth of the last decade, it is certainly understandable why the electorate is so on edge and the majority of the country believes we are headed in the wrong direction.
As investors, however, it behooves us to find sectors of the market that are undervalued given this so-so growth outlook. I continue to like the housing sector. Homebuilding stocks are down 25% to 35% from their 52-week highs despite housing starts posting their best levels since 2007 last year. Concerns about whether the country was going to sink into recession and the spike in volatility in the high-yield credit markets left many high-quality names deeply oversold.
