Today’s Trade: The Market’s Fight Song


Technical Outlook:

  • Extremely dovish and extremely unexpected FOMC Statement yesterday that cut the yearly outlook of 4 additional rate hikes down to 2 additional rate hikes. 
  • As a result, Yellen, by cutting the number of rates for the year, essentially gave the market the equivalent of two rate cuts yesterday. 
  • Be careful today, because a lot of the central banking actions of late, including the recent Draghi decision has resulted in next day reversals. 
  • 200-day moving average was broken yesterday, and the down trend off of the December highs was broken too. 
  • Bascially SPX is now trading above all the major moving averages
  • SPY volume picked up for the second straight day, but even with a FOMC announcement, was still below recent averages. 
  • VIX saw a major move yesterday that resulted in the VIX dropping below the rising trend-line off of the October lows, dropping a big -11% down to 14.99. 
  • USO coiling at recent highs popping 5% yesterday. 
  • Divergence in IWM, as yesterday’s move failed to make new rally highs. 
  • T2108 at 83.5%rising only 2.8% yesterday. 
  • SPX looking to close in on breakeven for the year. At 2044 level on SPX, there is a significant amount of resistance that was created during February – August time period of 2015. 
  • My Trades:

  • Did not add any new swing-trades yesterday. 
  • Closed out JPM at $59.12 for a flat trade. 
  • Closed out SPXS at 16.28 for a 2.5% loss. 
  • Currently 100% Cash
  • Will look to add 1-2 new positions and follow the market’s direction 
  • Chart for SPX:

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