After rolling scores to reflect the shift to second quarter seasonality (10 year historical), the average ADR score is 47.79, which is below the four week score of 49.33 and above the eight week average score of 46.85. The slip in scores this week isn’t too surprising given market seasonality faces stiffer headwinds into summer. Historically, the MSCI EAFE (EFA) has finished Q2 higher than it begins the quarter 6 times (coin-flip territory), producing a median 0.67% return. Traditionally, defensive baskets, such as utilities and healthcare, have been better bets in the quarter than basics groups.
SOURCE: SEASONAL INVESTOR
The average ADR in our universe is trading -27.72% below its 52 week high, 1.86% above its 200 dma, has 3.61 days to cover held short, and is expected to grow its EPS by 18.2% in the coming year. NOTE: EPS growth for our ADR universe exceeds large, mid, and small cap domestic universes.
The following table highlights those ADRs in our universe with the best track record of posting gains in the second quarter.
SOURCE: SEASONAL INVESTOR
Overall, utilities is the best ADR sector to concentrate portfolios in (SBS, KEP, EOC, ENI, CPL). Services (ICLR, VLRS, KOF, RYAAY, OMAB, CTRP, CPA, UGP) and technology (TU, BIDU, CHU, NTT, INFY, WUBA, TSM, ERIC, CMCM) can also be overweight. Basics score in line with the universe average score. Healthcare, industrials, consumer goods, and financials score below average.
The top zones are North America (BCE, TU, RY) and Africa (GOLD). North America, Central & Eastern Europe (MYTAY, MBT), and Sub-Saharan Africa are the best regions. Canada, Taiwan (TSM, HIMX, SPIL), Ireland (ICLR, RYAAY), Chile (EOC, ENI, BSAC), and Russia are the strongest countries.
