Unfortunately, last week I missed posting my pre-analysis on Crude oil. However, heading to the next week I wrote my thoughts and observations on this market, first going through the plain charts and then through the volume profiles. It’s a good idea to begin with the Commitments of Traders Report.
Looking at this COT report, we can see that the Managed Money section were net sellers of 15,892 contracts of WTI Crude oil (NYMEX, ICE and Options, Futures combined) with selling of 13,210 contracts and a long liquidation of 2,682 contracts in the week ended March 29.
Here a screenshot for you:
The US Dollar Index is one time framing lower on the daily perspective. At the same time we are testing the macro balance area low currently. I will closely observe this lower macro balance extreme as we could see some support here. Try to study the US Dollar with Crude Oil for a better market feeling.
Ok, let’s dig into Crude oil now. We start off with the plain monthly timeframe. Looking at this timeframe, we can observe that February’s high got taken out. The one time framing lower behavior that occured for several months ended. So, we are currently in balanced state. However, it seems like there was some selling going on into this upside move because of the candle’s reaction in March.
Looking now at the monthly volume profile, we can see that the market opened inside of the previous value close area but quickly moved lower to test the TPO single print. I mentioned this low volume area in my video analysis as a possible location to fill up with volume. In my opinion we could see some rotational behavior between the two major distributions in order to fill this area with volume before the market decides its direction. It depends on the open, but I have a more bullish feeling with possible resistance at the previous VVAL close level. My bullish feeling is declared because of the unsecured high in March as a possible area to revisit.
