Yesterday’s Trading:
Wednesday’s euro/dollar trading finished up. The rate restored to 1.1431 after falling to 1.1326. The UK pound was the market outsider over the course of the day and also managed to win back all of its daily losses against the dollar; ending trades at 1.4120.
The main driver for the weakening of the dollar before the release of the FOMC’s March minutes could have been the US Ministry for Energy’s report on oil reserves. The report showed a fall of 4.9 million barrels to 529.9 million. Analysts expected to see a 3.5 million barrel rise. Oil extraction was down by 14k to 9.008 million barrels per day.
Brent after the report was up to $40.50. Taking into account the negative correlation between the dollar and oil, the other key currencies followed oil upwards.
The FOMC minutes showed that the Fed bosses don’t see any chance of a rise in the interest rate in April.
Market Expectations:
The calendar for Thursday is empty, but ECB representatives are set to speak. The euro/pound cross is showing demand for euro. Taking this factor into account, I think that the euro bulls will try to test the solidity of 1.1440. I don’t expect to see a break in this level since I don’t see any drivers for the euro. I expect the close of the day to be 1.1385.
Day’s News (EET):
09:30, ECB’s Peter Pratt to speak;
10:00, ECB’s Vitor Constancio to speak;
11:30, ECB’s Benoit Coeure to speak;
15:30, Canadian February construction permits. US initial unemployment benefit applications.
Technical Analysis:
The euro has been in a sideways since the beginning of the week. It’s worth noting that on Friday it broke out of the funk. When the range of the outer bar on the daily has been broken, traders will start to work in the direction of the break after a rebound. In light of this, I’m sticking with a sideways today and a close in the region of 1.1380/85. The daily indicators are indicating a fall for the euro against the dollar.
