It’s a winning streak for US indicators today, on April Fool’s Day. The ISM Manufacturing PMI beats expectations quite nicely with 51.8 points. Prices provide an even bigger beat with 51.5 against 42 expected. However, employment is down to 48.1 points, worse than last time, but we already know that manufacturing jobs are poor and that the general NFP was actually good. All in all, this is a positive report.
The USD extends its gains.
The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was expected to bounce back to growth territory, with a score of 50.7 points in March after 49.5 in February. The 50 point threshold separates growth from contraction. This publication usually serves as one of the hints towards the NFP, but this time it is published after the fact.
The US dollar was bouncing back towards the release and after the NFP, but still severely down on the week, on Yellen’s dovishness.
We also get the final consumer sentiment indicator from the University of Michigan. The market had expected a rise from 90 initially reported to 90.5 now. The actual number is 91, adding to the fun. However, the party is not complete as construction spending is down 0.5% against a rise expected.
The final manufacturing PMI by Markit came out at 51.5 points, a tick higher than 51.4 originally reported. This is a bounce from the lows. It is important to remember that ISM carries more weight than Markit in the US. Many suspect that this sector is in a recession for quite some time.
Earlier, the all important Non-Farm Payrolls came out better than expected with 215K jobs gained and more importantly 2.3% wage growth y/y. This was not a huge surprise, but good news that allowed the dollar to recover after a horrible week.
This NFP report showed that the manufacturing sector lost 29K jobs in March, more than the 18K jobs lost in February. It seems this sector will continue to lag behind for quite some time.
