Non-farm payroll numbers are due out today and they should meet Fed expectations. The US labor market has stood out among a faltering US economy, but it may not be enough for Janet Yellen and her colleagues to warranted a second interest hike just yet. Unless there is a significant pickup in the low inflation as well as continued global growth factors, a hike in 2016 just isn’t going to happen.
Meanwhile, Asian shares and the dollar both lost more ground on Friday as investors began the new quarter in a cautious mood, with glimmers of life in China’s economy offset by a darkening mood in Japan.
205,000 Jobs Expected
Analysts are divided as to the results of the report with some economists forecasting that a healthy 205,000 jobs were created in March, while others say the numbers may not add up as expected.
A key number will be average hourly wages, expected to rise 0.3 percent and the labor participation rate, which has been edging up since October. Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.9 percent.
When it comes to the bond market, however, experts point out that in seven of the past eight years, the government’s first print of March payroll data has significantly missed the mark, falling below the consensus of Wall Street economists by a wide margin. Treasury yields Thursday hit their lowest level in more than a month. The U.S. 2-year note was yielding 0.729 percent, and the 10-year was at 1.77 percent.
The March employment report is expected at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday, along with a few other important data points Friday. ISM manufacturing will be reported at 10 a.m. EDT Friday, construction spending at 10 a.m., Markit PMI at 9:45 a.m. and car sales are reported throughout the morning.
