According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, layoffs in the US were up 32% in March 2016 over March 2015. Compared to both January and February this year, March was somewhat better but overall for Q1 published layoffs were also 32% more on a year-over-year basis. It wasn’t a very good quarter. Some of that is expected given the death of “transitory” as an effect on oil production which can no longer deny reality. While it is easy to chalk up this potential economic setback to that particular sector, there is much more going on:

“Job cuts have slowed since surging in the first two months of the year, but the pace is still well above that of 2015,” Challenger, Gray & Christmas CEO John Challenger said in a statement. “And, it is not just the energy sector that is seeing heavier job cuts. Layoff announcements have increased significantly in the retail sector and computer sector as well.” [emphasis added]

A reduction in employment in retail makes sense given the overall environment, where the Commerce Department’s retail sales estimates remain below 3% (on a 6-month average basis) which has traditionally been the dividing line between retail employment expansion and the dreaded opposite. Other estimates of the retail climate wholeheartedly concur with the expectation for further labor reductions.

The BLS, however, shows just the opposite. In the latest payroll farce, the update for March 2016, employment in the retail industry was estimated to have grown by another astounding 47.7k employees (seasonally adjusted) after absolutely surging by more than 65k in each of the two months prior. In the six months since September, as retail sales have tumbled significantly below that 3% line, the BLS estimates that retail employment is up an enormous 261k jobs. That is a ridiculous 43.5k per month, which is just about three times the rate figured for the period starting August 2003 through August 2005 (15.8k per month) when retail sales were growing by an average 6%.