Stocks ended the week higher after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen emphasized that rate hikes by the central bank will be gradual, spurring the market-implied odds of a rate hike at the April FOMC meeting to drop to zero.
MACRO NEWS: Speaking at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she considers it appropriate for the Fed to “proceed cautiously” in adjusting policy, adding that although the markets have largely rebounded after dipping earlier in 2016, “in other respects economic and financial conditions remain less favorable than they did back at the time of the December FOMC meeting.”
The Fed chair also expressed the view that the U.S. impact from global market developments since the start of the year will “most likely be limited”…
In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls increased 215,000 in March, topping the expected 205,000 increase. The unemployment rate rose to 5.0%, versus expectations for it to remain at 4.9%. Average hourly earnings grew 0.3% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, versus expectations for them to be up 0.2% and 2.2%, respectively.
Markit’s manufacturing PMI ticked up to 51.5 in March, matching the consensus forecast. ISM’s manufacturing index rose to 51.8 in March, which was better than the 51.0 reading that was expected. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 91.0 in the final March reading, above the 90.5 consensus forecast. Personal income rose 0.2% in February, versus expectations for an increase of 0.1%, while spending rose 0.1%, as expected.
The core PCE price index increased 0.1%, versus expectations for it to be up 0.2%. The U.S. goods trade deficit widened to $62.9B in February, which was a little larger than the $62.5B forecast. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading rose 2.2 points to 96.2 in March, which was better than the expected 94.0 reading. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey improved to -13.6 in March, which was better than the -25.8 reading that was expected. The Chicago PMI bounced 6 points to 53.6 in March, nearly erasing the 8 point drop to 47.6 in February…