The reversals that the major US stock markets suffered in the first weeks of the year have largely been reversed now. The currency has fallen against the Yen and Sterling, but appreciated against Sterling over the first quarter – Sterling has slumped against all major currencies on concerns over a possible “Brexit”. The growth in the US economy in Q4 of 2014 was strongly revised upwards from 0.7 to 1.4%, giving full-year growth of 2.4%. So consequently, the US economy might be said to be ticking over nicely, an idea supported by the most recent job creation data.
According to the US Department of Labor, 215000 in March, but unemployment edged up from 4.9 to 5%. The unemployment rate is based on the number of people who are out of work, registered as unemployed and actively seeking work. As the economy improves, more people who had given up on the idea of finding work return to the job market, pushing up unemployment, despite strong job creation data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US workforce is set to grow at a rate of 0.5% per annum between 2012 and 2022 meaning that new jobs must be created to stand still as new people enter the workforce. By 2022, they estimate that the US workforce will hit 163.5 million people.
The Department of Labor revised the January and February job creation figures down marginally to account for an overestimate of 1000 jobs. The new jobs created in March were mainly found in the service sector with retail, leisure and hospitality together with health and education feeling the benefit. Other notable increases came in the construction industry and in governmental positions.
As always, positive economic data excites debate as to when the Federal Reserve will boost the interest rate, but the Fed has shown itself to keep a watching brief on the global economy which is still highly lacklustre.
