As it turns out, the bulls weren’t done buying stocks after all. The lull from a couple weeks ago was just that…a lull, which turned out to be temporary.
Last week’s 1.8% gain for the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) rekindled the rally that began in early February. We’ve now logged gains in six of the past seven weeks, wiping away the bearish worry that materialized two weeks ago when the winning streak came to a close. In fact, Friday’s close of 2072.78 for the S&P 500 is the best weekly close we’ve seen since early December, and better yet, the move has put stocks within reach of a huge technical ceiling. If broken, it could start something of a melt-up.
If we’ll take a closer look at the technicals below – as always – after a quick run-down of last week’s and this week’s key economic data.
Economic Data
Last week was loaded with economic news, but there’s little doubt as to the highlight – Friday’s job report for March. In short, the nation added 215,000 new payrolls last month, and the unemployment rate ticked 1/10th of a point higher to 5.0%.
Unemployment and Payroll-Growth Chart
Source: Thomson Reuters
While the slightly-higher unemployment rate raises a red flag, there’s actually a compelling explanation. In simplest terms, the unemployment rate is determined by dividing the number of officially-unemployed individuals by the number of people technically in the work force (whether they’re working or not).Although the nation added 215,000 new payrolls in March, even more people saw enough a reason to put themselves back in the pool of job-seekers. From many perspectives, it’s encouraging that more individuals are getting off the sidelines and at least trying to get back to work.
This progress is better illustrated using a chart of lesser-watched data — the labor force participation rate, and the employed/population ratio. Both not only moved to multi-year highs last month, but both are accelerating higher.
