A light volume affair across the exchanges yesterday. This market continues to remain in a limbo state where any move can come rather quickly. Major indexes are below their respective 50 day moving averages. Anything can happen under the 50 day and we are in an area where downside risks have piled up. Like the Brexit vote we have seen where this market is on the verge of collapse only to see buyers step up and push this market to new highs. The positive today was we did not fall below last week’s low. This market will need to make a turn higher if we want to see new highs soon.
Energy was a big loser as crude oil lost its $50 handle. The commodity has been batted back and forth as rumors over a supply deal continue to confuse traders. Supply continues to hit the market as producers rush to pump as much oil as they can while prices remain near $50 a barrel. There is another attempt at a supply deal in November. For now, the commodity remains range bound without a trend.
Wednesday we’ll get the release of the latest installment of the Fed’s beige book. In two weeks, we’ll get another Fed meeting, but without another jobs report. The past two jobs reports have missed their mark and we have seen the economy produce jobs at lower clip than economists have predicted. The Fed is boxed in because they waited so long to raise rates. Given the election will be less than a week prior to the election don’t think the Fed will raise rates prior to November 8th. Question is will the Fed be able to raise rates knowing they may cause a recession?
We remain in a very precarious situation with this market. Given where the indexes sit they are quite vulnerable to a quick sell off. A push back above key moving averages would do this market a lot of good and we’ll be looking for the market to do so. In the meantime, we’ll see how this market progresses from here on out.
Go out and have a great week!
