Markets have finally shifted (at least a little bit of) their attention away from President Trump, with tomorrow’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting taking center stage. We’ve beaten the heck out of the dead horse explaining that traders have already completely priced in a rate hike from the venerable central bank (see “What the buck is up with the dollar this year?” and “Two signs stock market investors are preparing for (much?) higher interest rates” for just the two most recent examples).

From a trading perspective, this means that the Federal Reserve’s (assumed) decision to raise rates 25bps tomorrow will not, in and of itself, move markets. That said, there’s still the potential for big movements in the FX and stock markets based on the other components of the Federal Reserve’s big meeting. So what will we be watching at come 2:00pm ET (18:00 GMT) tomorrow?

1) Interest Rate Decision

Once the outcome of the monetary policy meeting is announced, just take a quick moment to verify that the Fed has fulfilled expectations and raised interest rates by 25bps. If the Fed fails to raise rates, the dollar would likely tank while US stocks could surge; we would likely see the exact opposite reaction if the Fed hikes by 50bps, but both of those are extremely unlikely

2) Interest Rate Forecasts (“Dot Chart”) / Summary of Economic Projections

This is where the biggest potential for market-moving revelations lies. Based on past experience, we know that the Fed’s projections won’t necessarily come true, but the central bank’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) provides the best insight into where the Fed stands right now.

If the Fed’s infamous dot chart shows that the median Fed member is anticipating three more rate hikes this year (i.e. to the 1.50-1.75% range), we should see the dollar catch a bid and US stocks could lose ground. These moves could be reinforced by a corresponding upgrade in the central bank’s GDP and inflation forecasts.