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It is funny when strategists come on and talk about market targets as if asset prices would be anywhere near these levels without Central Banks and their artificial hand in the markets.
The tail risk is beyond any finance models ever constructed right now, literally every stock in the world could go to zero given the Flash Crash of 2012 was only a temporary event, and we are at much bigger levels of the historical asset bubble now, and the Central Bank Unwinding Stage is just beginning. The Flash Crash occurred when Central Banks were still in the accumulation phase, i.e., the middle of ZIRP and QE, there is so much air under all these asset prices, including stocks and bonds, but derivative models have the most illiquid, unmeasurable and “unmodelable exposure”.
That there is no question that stocks and bonds will both have crash events, this is now a guaranteed certainty event, it is just how bad the crashes occur, the frequency, the collateral damage to financial institutions like banks, hedge funds, brokerages and Central Banks themselves. Yes Central Banks could end up with negative equity holdings, i.e., they need to be bailed out. In short we need a bigger boat to use the Jaws reference, but actually things have gotten so out of hand, it is impossible to build a boat big enough to cover the pending losses on the inevitable financial market crash.
They broke financial markets, they socialized financial markets, and socialism always implodes in on itself in the end. You cannot have socialized artificial gains, and free market capitalistic risk, which ultimately takes over when the financial markets crash as everybody goes into self preservation mode. The incongruence here should not be lost on Central Bankers. It is basically, what served as the backdrop to the 2007 financial market crash.
However, this time the bubble is bigger by a factor of 10, when Central Banks Balance Sheets are taken in effect since the 2008 Credit Bubble, and how interconnected Global Financial Markets are set up through derivative and sophisticated modern finance instruments. The entire global financial system has become one giant unsustainable Ponzi scheme thanks to Central Bank`s irresponsible Monetary Policy Experiments.
