Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of March 13
March 14
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
105.0
105.9
105
Producer Price Index – February
0.1%
0.4
0.1
PPI Core
0.2
0.2
0.2
March 15
Consumer Price Index – February
0.1%
0.6
0.2
CPI Core
0.2
0.3
0.2
Retail Sales – February
0.1%
0.4
0.1
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.1
0.8
0.2
NY Fed Manufacturing Index
16.0
18.7
15.7
Business Inventories – January
0.3%
0.3
0.3
NAHB Index – March
66
65
66
FMOC
0.875%
0.625
0.875
March 16
Initial Unemployment Claims
243
243
242
Housing Starts – February
1.260M
1.246
1.266
Building Permits
1.270
1.285
1.267
Philadelphia Fed Survey
30.0
43.3
32.5
March 17
Industrial Production – February
0.3%
-0.3
0.2
Capacity Utilization
75.6
75.4
75.4
Manufacturing Output
0.3
0.2
0.4
Leading Indicators – February
0.3%
0.6
0.4
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – March (p)
96.8
96.3
97.0
Week of March 20
March 20
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
0.10
-0.05
March 21
Current Account – Q4
-$133.3B
-113.0
March 22
Existing Home Sales – February
5.600M
5.690
5.590
FHFA Housing Market Index – November
0.4%
0.4
March 23
New Home Sales – February
0.555M
0.555
0.557
March 24
Durable Good Orders – February
1.0%
2.0
