While the headlines have been all about the Republicans proposed replacement for the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare), the Atlanta Fed issued their latest forecast for first quarter GDP, which has been lowered yet again and is now sitting near stall speed at 1.3 percent.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.3 percent on March 7, down from 1.8 percent on March 1.
We also saw signs of slowing from across the Atlantic where in a major blow to the acceleration narrative in Europe, German Factory orders plunged 7.4% in January, the biggest sequential decline since the financial crisis and the second-largest sequential decline on record. (Hat tip to Bespoke Institutional for the chart)
We are also watching nerves get a bit tighter on the global stage following Sunday night’s test of North Korean ballistic missiles. In response, the U.S. military is deploying its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) to South Korea. This is strictly a defensive weapon, but be on the watch for a reaction to China that may see this as more of an offensive move.
Why care about such a military move? With the Atlanta Fed forecasting weaker Q1 GDP, signs of weakness in the Eurozone and now rising global tensions, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her Committee have a lot to contemplate as they discuss a potential rate hike this month.
