Francois Fillion in meeting for the primaries of the political party Les Republicains.
If there’s one thing that Brexit and the U.S. elections have shown, the only certainty, at least in the current global landscape is uncertainty. Opinion polls have continued to shift back and forth, and so far, the major narrative has been that Le Pen will be reaching the second round of elections.
Opinion polls and prominent names from the Eurozone have all ruled out a Le Pen victory. While it seems like a lucrative option to bet on a Le Pen victory, the outcome from Brexit and the U.S. elections points to the fact that anything is possible.
Michel Sapin, French Minister of economy, warned early in February (and indirectly hinted that a vote for Le Pen was like a bet against France) that traders would lose a lot of money if they expected to see Le Pen win the 2017 French elections.
Here’s why you should focus on uncertainty of the French elections and not the outcome
Thus, to bet on a Le Pen victory is just as risky as betting against her opponent. The French elections will no doubt play a very big role in shaping the outcome of the Eurozone, but on the same note, it is not as simple as the Brexit referendum or the U.S. elections.
This is because the elections are held in two rounds. In the first round, due on April 23rd, Ms. Le Pen is widely tipped to make it with a comfortable victory in the second round which is due to be held on May 7th. Here, unlike the first round, the second round of elections will be a major event as the outcome would be more binary and puts the French elections on a somewhat similar footing to that of the Brexit referendum or the U.S. elections.
Still, if one though that the uncertainty will end post-May 7th, there is still a long road ahead. For starters, for all the verbal threats of leaving the EU and abandoning the euro currency, Ms. Le Pen must first garner enough support in the parliament in order to bring the referendum to life.
