Apart from our own Fed preview we also provide outlooks from others. Here are two hawkish opinions:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
USD Into FOMC: Looking For Pullbacks As Buying Opportunities – TD
TD Research notes that the core of attention at today’s FOMC policy decision will center on the tone, dots, and forecasts.
In that regard, TD doubts that the Fed will want to send such a strong signal, so it is more likely to get a few shifts in this year’s dots and a risk of some backup in the medians for 2018/2019.
This outcome, according to TD, supports a knee-jerk bounce in the USD but doubt there would be limited follow-through in the coming days.
“This leaves looking for pullbacks as buying opportunities,” TD advises.
USD Into FOMC – What Is The Trade? – SocGen
Anything other than a 25bp rate hike would be a huge surprise to the market, notes Societe Generale FX Strategy.
In that regard, SocGen’s US economists think that an upward adjustment in the Fed’s dots plot is possible to send a signal to the market that the FOMC is serious about normalizing policy.
“The happy medium, where dots rise but not too fast, is the world in which USD/JPY and AUD/JPY thrive,” SocGen advises.
