The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 236 K to 250 K (consensus 244,000), and the Department of Labor reported 244,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 247,250 (reported last week as 247,250) to 243,000. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014. 

Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims

The trend of the 4 week moving average improved this week. This marks 109 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4 week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which historically suggests a slowing economy.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 8.3 % lower (better than the 8.0 % for last week) than they were in this same week in 2016.

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 243,000, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 247,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending April 8, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 8 was 1,979,000, a decrease of 49,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 2,028,000. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since April 15, 2000 when it was 1,962,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,023,500, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 2,025,500. This is the lowest level for this average since June 17, 2000 when it was 2,016,750.