The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 240 K to 245 K (consensus 243,000), and the Department of Labor reported 257,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 242,750 (reported last week as 243,000) to 242,250. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims are 7.5 % lower (worse than the 8.3 % for last week) than they were in this same week in 2016.

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 257,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 244,000 to 243,000. The 4-week moving average was 242,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 243,000 to 242,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending April 15, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 15 was 1,988,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 1,979,000 to 1,978,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,007,250, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since June 10, 2000 when it was 2,006,000. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 2,023,500 to 2,023,250.