Investors have found it difficult to resist the temptation to become armchair generals in response to the recent flurry of geopolitical volatility. I have some sympathy for that. Political experts told us that Mr. Trump would mark the beginning of a new U.S. isolationism, and even speculated about the emergence of a new Monroe doctrine. The president’s “America First” discourse, the statement that NATO is obsolete, and the rapprochement to Russia were all pivots watched ominously by other world leaders, especially in continental Europe.

This story, however, increasingly feels like ancient history.

The decision to re-engage in the Syrian conflict—which had hitherto been left in the hands of Turkey and Russia—marks a big shift, and also has also raised questions about just how chummy Mr. Trump and Putin are. The strike on the Syrian airbase was carried out in the wake of the apparently Assad-approved chemical attack, but we can’t really be sure that was the only reason the U.S. decided to stick its nose back into the Middle East. The decision to drop “the MOAB” in Afghanistan suggests that the role of the world’s policeman is one that Mr. Trump is happy to assume. This is to say, provided it helps diverting attention from challenges closer to home, of which there have been plenty. Finally, the new U.S. administration is being faced with an increasingly bold and risky North Korea. As a result Mr. Trump has decided to put the country on notice by sending a group of warships, apparently joined by the Japanese navy , to send a signal to Pyongyang that further tests of ICBMs will not be tolerated. 

I could spend hours in the pub discussing these exciting changes in the global geopolitical landscape, but I am not sure it would do my investment or market analysis any good. I am also loath to accept the idea of a causal link between geopolitical volatility and markets’ gyrations. After all, the advice to “sell everything” on the back of geopolitical changes does not have a good track record. Indeed, that hissing sound you’re hearing isn’t only U.S. equities losing momentum. It is also the collective sigh of relief from leaders in the developed world in response to signs that U.S. is, once again, willing to solve the problems they don’t want to, or can’t, deal with. One man’s political uncertainty can quickly become another’s certainty.