OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.17%) this morning are little changed, up +0.06%, after Preisident Trump ruled out a withdrawal from NAFTA. European stocks are down -0.40% ahead of today’s ECB meeting and press conference from ECB President Draghi that may provide clues as to when thee ECB may begin to exit from its QE program. Weakness in crude oil prices undercut energy producing stocks fell with Jun WTI crude oil (CLM17 -1.09%) down -0.97%. A 3% fall in Deutsche Bank is leading losses in European bank stocks after the Deutsche Bank’s debt and equity trading missed estimates for Q1. Losses in European stocks were contained after Eurozone Apr economic confidence rose to a 9-1/2 year high. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.19%, Hong Kong +0.49%, China +0.36%, Taiwan +.04%, Australia +0.16%, Singapore -0.08%, South Korea +0.20%, India -0.34%. China’s Shanghai Composite recovered from a 3-month low and closed higher after China Mar industrial profits posted their biggest increase in 3-1/2 years.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) is down -0.05%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.23%.
Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM17 -0.01%) are down -0.5 of a tick.
The BOJ, as expected, kept its stimulus policies unchanged, but lowered its inflation projection for the fiscal year that starts this month to 1.4% from 1.5%, and raised its GDP forecast to 1.6% from 1.5%. BOJ Governor Kuroda said that CPI probably won’t stabilize above 2% until after fiscal 2018 and that it’s premature to discuss an exit from its easing policies. He said the 2% inflation target must be met first and then the BOJ will communicate properly about an exit when that time comes.
China Mar industrial profits surged +23.8% y/y, the largest increase in 3-1/2 years.
Eurozone Apr economic confidence rose +1.6 to 109.6, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 108.2 and a 9-1/2 year high.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +1,000 to 245,000, previous +10,000 to 244,000) and continuing claims (expected +31,000 to 2.010 million, previous -49,000 to 1.979 million), (2) Mar durable goods orders (expected +1.3% and +0.4% ex transportation, Feb +1.8% and +0.5% ex transportation), (3) Mar wholesale inventories (expected +0.3% m/m, Feb +0.4% m/m), (4) Mar pending home sales (expected -0.5% m/m, Feb +5.5% m/m and -2.4% y/y), (5) Apr Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index (expected -3 to 17, Mar +6 to 20), (6) Treasury auctions $28 billion of 7-year T-notes, (7) USDA weekly Export Sales.
