NZD/USD Daily
Technical Outlook: Kiwi tested the March reversal day close at 7042 before turning lower with today’s candle attempting to post an outside-day reversal if we were to close at these levels (near-term bearish). Key near-term support rests at 6951/72 with a break of the monthly opening-range lows targeting critical support at 6861/85. Resistance / bearish invalidation stands at 7076/90 where the 100-day moving average converges on the 75% line of the descending pitchfork formation.
NZD/USD 240min
Notes: It’s too early to rely to heavily on this formation but this newly identified slope off the lows highlights near-term support at the weekly open / 61.8% line at 6990 with a more significant support confluence eyed at 6950– a break below this level would be needed to validate resumption of the broader downtrend in Kiwi.
Heading into the New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) release later today, I’ll favor fading strength into structural resistance with a break below the weekly opening-range lows needed to keep the short-bias in play. Consensus estimates are calling for an annualized print of 2%, up from a previous read of 1.3% y/y.
