Looking at The Data
With the first round of the French elections rapidly approaching (April 23rd), voters’ sentiment appears to have settled around roughly 25% each for both centrist candidate Macron and Far-Right candidate Le Pen with Francois Fillon holding behind around 18% – 20%. The latest data reflects a gradual but steady decline in abstentions with turnout intentions rising to 64% in April from 59% in March and likely to continue to rise approaching the voting.
The data also suggests that voters are becoming more certain of their choice with 70% of electors saying that they are now sure, which is up sharply from earlier in the campaign. Le Pen and Fillon have had strong support from their voters throughout the campaign who register around 80% sure while Macron, whose voters have been unsure up until recently have now jumped to register 67% as sure of the centrist candidate.
Voters’ Worries
Polling on the issues concerning voters has revealed that the majority (53%) are worried about unemployment with purchasing power just behind at (51%), social security came in third (48%) with security fourth (40% and terrorism fifth (38%). Interestingly, immigration came in sixth at just over 33%. As such it seems that the main concerns of voters fall outside the core areas of focus of Le Pen’s campaign which are globalisation, Europe and the place of France in the world. Indeed, the number of French voters looking to return to the Franc is at its lowest in years. A poll conducted by Ifop at the end of March showed that 72% were against a return to the Franc.
Can Le Pen Win?
Piggybacking the surge in support for populist movements across Europe, Le Pen has seen a wave of support in this campaign but her path to victory is fraught with significant obstacles though some of these supposed challenges could also afford her opportunity.
Low Voter Turnout Risks
One of the key risks in this election is voter turnout as this ballot is unlike any previous French election. None of the mainstream parties will have a candidate make it through to the second round and consequently, voters are in the unprecedented position of having to choose between two candidates from parties who have not yet held an elected position at national level.
