Retail sales growth in February 2017 was going to be low by virtue of its comparison to February 2016 and the extra day in that month. The Census Bureau’s autoregressive models are supposed to normalize just these kinds of calendar irregularities so that we can make something close to apples to apples comparisons. The seasonally-adjusted estimate for February, however, was calculated to be less than the one for January 2017, therefore suggesting that weakness in the prior month wasn’t entirely related to the non-economic reasons of a leap year.
The current estimates for March 2017, released last Friday, include (standard) revisions to February. The unadjusted figure for the prior month was revised down by more than $2 billion, increasing more so the month-over-month decline for the adjusted estimate. By whatever standard, February 2017 was not a good month for US consumers (check the snow patterns).
Unfortunately, that condition appears to have spilled over into March. Seasonally-adjusted (more calendar effects due to the differences in Easter 2016 to 2017), retail sales declined for the second straight month; the first time that has happened since three onthly negatives starting with December 2014 and continuing in the first two months of 2015. Retail sales didn’t even decline in consecutive months last year during the near-recession conditions that prevailed then.
Unadjusted, year-over-year retail sales expanded by 4.82%, and 4.60% ex autos. For the first quarter as a whole, retail sales were just 3.9% above those figured for the first quarter of 2016, about half the growth rate that could be considered healthy and normal and nowhere near what would be symmetrically consistent given the proposed change of economic environment.
The growth rates are clearly better this year, but still falling far, far short of what is necessary. We can use the seasonally-adjusted series to better illustrate this point (continued lack of recovery/growth). After falling off dramatically in the second half of 2008, retail sales then, like everything else, only partially recovered and only at first.
