Trump’s first 100 days in office have been a whirlwind but so far the ‘Trump Trade’ of being long stocks has worked for investors and speculators. Will markets continue to be so forgiving of the many foreign and domestic policy failures including the failure to repeal ‘Obamacare’?
It is possible but we think it unlikely as many stock and bond markets, particularly U.S. markets, are now priced for close to perfection – in a far from perfect, massively indebted, volatile financial world.
So far during his Presidency, markets have remained high on the cocaine of massive monetary stimulus and still near o%, ultra low interest rates and record margin debt.
There remain hopes of a further “Trump bump” from aggressive fiscal easing and deregulation and this and increasing “irrational exuberance” has seen the S&P 500 move back towards record territory, driven by increasingly bubble like technology stocks and a Nasdaq at all time record highs above 6,000.
The smart money continues to be be concerned about the bubbles that continue to inflate. Risk appetite is near record highs and even bearish news is greeted as a buying opportunity. The mantra is ‘TINA’ – ‘there is no alternative’ to stocks and bonds.
The obvious alternative in these uncertain and volatile times is a diversification into gold. A very similar mantra was heard in 1999 and 2007 and this is typical of bubbles. The obvious alternative in 1999 and 2007 was a diversification into gold.
