E-Mini S&P500 Ahead Of NFP


The S&P 500 is trading at all time highs with some sharp price move up from 2403 that we see as a fifth wave rally, the final part of a five wave recovery from 2345 called an impulse wave*. There are some Fibonacci levels around 2440 that may play an important role for the next few sessions, as we think that upside can be limited and that a new corrective setback could come at the start of June. However, extended fifth waves are very common on stock markets, so do not chase it and call a top until you see a five wave drop from the high.

S&P500, 4h

 

*Impulse wave is structured by five sub-waves in the direction of a stronger trend. The picture below shows a five wave move to the upside, meaning that price is in an uptrend. When the five move is complete you can expect a three wave set-back.

 

  • wave 1 must be an impulse or a leading diagonal
  • wave 2 can be any corrective pattern except a triangle
  • wave 2 must not retrace more than 100% of wave 1
  • wave 3 must be an Impulse
  • wave 3 must be longer than wave 2
  • wave 4 can be any corrective pattern (zig-zag, double or triple zig-zag, triangle, flat, double or triple three)
  • wave 4 should never trade into a territory of a wave 1
  • wave 5 must be an impulse or an ending diagonal
  • wave 3 should never be the shortest wave when compared to waves 1 and 5
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