All trends from monthly to hourly are up with a new break-out to an all-time high last week. It is now obvious that the C-wave was shallow and ended on 4/17, with the low of one of the intermediate cycles bottoming at that time. Since (to my knowledge) the next intermediate cycle low is not due until August, there should not be any real weakness until we get closer to that date, and it should allow us to reach the next important projection of about 2500. After that, however, we should witness the most substantial reversal of the trend which started at 1810, but which will not necessarily be the beginning of a new bear market.

If EWT analysts are correct, there should be one more wave up to an even newer high, the level of which will be determined by the amount of re-accumulation achieved during that correction. Negative divergence has been apparent for some time in the weekly indicators (as was shown on the weekly SPX chart posted last week), but the push higher since 5/18 is keeping them positive for the time being.  The next time they weaken it will be a warning that a significant correction has started.  

Analysis: (These Charts and subsequent ones courtesy of QCharts.com)

Daily chart

Last week, I mentioned that I had divided the main channel from 1810 into four sections, and that, since the index had reached its 2400 projection, it had been trading in the second quadrant from the top — finding support on the mid-channel line, and resistance at the top of the second division. Note that this resistance extends all the way back to the December high with that action temporarily confined to the same parameters before it finally broke out and reached the top of the channel. Now that we have a break-out, not only above the red line, but pushing into the first quadrant as well, it is possible that we will be repeating the same pattern as before, and work our way to the top of the channel again by the time we reach the final price target of 2500 or so (which target is determined by the amount of re-accumulation that took place during the recent correction). These projections based on patterns created on P&F charts are not irrefutable, but based on the frequency with which they meet their goal, it is best to give them credence until proven otherwise.