Employment at US companies increased 147,000 in May (in seasonally adjusted terms), according to this morning’s update from the Labor Department. The rise is below expectations, based on Econoday.com’s consensus forecast for a 173,500 jump in payrolls. The advance also represents a downshift from April’s 173,000 increase. But the softer monthly comparison was offset by a slightly stronger year-over-year change. On balance, today’s release suggests that the labor market remains on track for moderate if unspectacular growth in the near term.

The weaker monthly increase is a bit disappointing, but monthly data is noisy. On several occasions in recent years we’ve seen big changes, up and down, that appeared to break with the trend, inspiring a major rethink on the outlook for the labor market. With the benefit of hindsight, however, the lesson is that one or even two dramatic shifts in the month-to-month comparisons tend to be unreliable benchmarks for macro analytics.

By contrast, the annual trend offers more dependability, and on that score today’s results imply that moderate growth remains intact. Private payrolls increased 1.77% in May vs. the year-earlier level, up slightly from April’s 1.66% advance.

Looking at the latest annual change in context with recent history suggests that the labor market is stabilizing at a rate that, while lower than a few years ago, is still healthy and arguably sustainable for the near term. As I’ve been discussing for much of the past year, the decelerating annual rate of growth in payrolls has been worrisome…if it continued. Based on today’s report, it’s tempting to conclude that the downshift has run its course, at least for now.

“Job growth is a little disappointing, but enough to continue tightening the labor market,” says Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase. “This doesn’t change the overall story of an economy that generally seems to be growing above trend and reducing slack.”