Normally the worst season for the stock market is between July and November, especially August through mid-October, with September the worst month for losses (on average, of course).
The first wave of the 1929 to 1932 crash ran from early September into mid-November, claiming a loss of 47% in just two and a half months.
This year, this time frame could be equally dangerous…
I’m a long-term forecaster, so I look to Andrew Pancholi at markettimingreport.com to fine tune the shorter-term situation. That’s not an easy task. And it’s impossible to be right all of the time. If you can nail short-term forecasts about 60% or 70% of the time, you’re a hero in this realm!
Andy has some very impressive long-term cycles, as attendees of our Palm Beach Irrational Economics Summit last October learned. But he also has some impressive shorter-term models that show some major turning points over the next few years.
A turning point can go either direction. Andy can only give an estimate of whether we’ll see a boom or a bust as the date approaches.
To date, he’s been eerily accurate!
Now, guess what?
The strongest spike for a turn point hits in October!
This is the biggest spike he’s seen over more than 20 years, and from his models, looks to be the biggest one we’ll see during the next 10.
His weekly models point specifically to around October 20.
Both of us believe that could be the top of the greatest bubble in history.
His second greatest spike of the last few decades came in late 2002, right near the bottom of the great tech wreck crash.
Andy also sees possible turning points later this month and in late January 2018.
The most likely scenario at this point – and Andy and I will continue to reevaluate as it develops – is that we see an intermediate top in the stock markets by the end of the third week of this month, with a 5% to 10% crash into late August or early September. Then we get a final bubble run into mid- to late October followed by the classic bubble burst of 30% to 50% within two to three months, into January or so.
